U.S. metros vie for a smaller youth population; will millennials ever marry and have kids?
The post-millennial generation — the nation’s youngest — is smaller than its predecessor, leaving most of the nation’s large metros with a shrinking population under age 20. The Bay Area’s youngest cohort is growing but not fast.
By Sharon Simonson
The post-millennial generation is less numerous than the millennials. Even with immigration, in coming years, U.S. metropolitan areas will share a smaller youth-pie, according to research by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institute: “There are places that will have growth in younger populations, but they will be not the norm,” Frey said.
Fifty-nine of the country’s100 largest metropolitan areas saw a shrinking number of children from 2010 to 2014. The Los Angeles metro saw its under-20 population shrink by 150,000, the nation’s biggest decline, according to Frey’s analysis of June 25 Census Bureau estimates. Chicago, New York, Detroit, Philadelphia and Riverside, the next five biggest losers in descending order, saw their populations of youngsters drop by 76,000 to 37,000 in the four-year window.
Houston (up 97,000) and Dallas (up 80,000), on the other hand, were the biggest gainers. San Francisco-Oakland (up 10,000) and San Jose (up 7,600) held their own, but not nearly so well as tech rivals Seattle (up 19,000), Denver (up 21,000) and Austin (up 37,000).
Large declines in the number of non-Hispanic white young people account for the bulk of the decline in the number of people in the under-age-20 cohort, Frey said. In places where other groups, including Hispanics, Asians and Pacific Islanders are seeing increases in their youth populations, in essence making up for the white population loss, the under-20 cohort is growing larger or shrinking less slowly. Non-Hispanic whites as a group are older than the country’s minority populations, and fewer white women are of childbearing age relative to Hispanic, Asian and other groups. That dichotomy is being manifested in the nation’s youngest generation.
The data presage the composition of the nation’s and each metro’s labor force and consumer pool, Frey said. Across the board, the suburbs — traditionally the American family-rearing location of choice — could be affected most. Not only are there fewer families with kids, but those families may have a more difficult time than previous generations securing the mortgage debt to buy a home.
The Los Angeles metropolitan area probably can withstand even such a large numeric loss of youth, Frey said. Its economy is diverse, and it remains an attractive immigrant gateway. A city in the Midwest where population loss is already an issue might be less resilient.
What happens in the next 10 years is unpredictable. The U.S. population has grown in waves starting with the 80 million or so boomers born after the Second World War. The boomers gave rise to the millennials, another generation of about 80 million born from about 1982 to 2000, though about 15 percent of millennials, or 11 million people, are immigrants. The millennials — only about a fifth of whom are married with children — may start to form families in coming years, creating the next big population wave, or not.
Change in Population, Under Age 20, Largest U.S. metros, 2010 – 2014 |
Under age 20: Total numeric change | |||
| Total | Whites | Minorities | ||
| 1 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 96,758 | 5,596 | 91,162 |
| 2 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 80,164 | (11,081) | 91,245 |
| 3 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 69,817 | 2,324 | 67,493 |
| 4 | Austin-Round Rock, TX | 37,161 | 9,448 | 27,713 |
| 5 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 30,875 | (14,658) | 45,533 |
| 6 | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 26,128 | 4,031 | 22,097 |
| 7 | Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 20,786 | 4,201 | 16,585 |
| 8 | Raleigh, NC | 19,301 | 5,070 | 14,231 |
| 9 | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 19,295 | (14,988) | 34,283 |
| 10 | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 18,836 | (3,920) | 22,756 |
| 11 | Oklahoma City, OK | 17,549 | 2,707 | 14,842 |
| 12 | Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN | 16,375 | 3,091 | 13,284 |
| 13 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 14,188 | (10,899) | 25,087 |
| 14 | Provo-Orem, UT | 12,557 | 8,112 | 4,445 |
| 15 | McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 10,982 | 8 | 10,974 |
| 16 | Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 10,248 | (15,013) | 25,261 |
| 17 | San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA | 10,134 | (5,853) | 15,987 |
| 18 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 9,180 | (16,948) | 26,128 |
| 19 | Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 9,064 | 3,431 | 5,633 |
| 20 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 7,621 | (5,041) | 12,662 |
| 21 | Salt Lake City, UT | 7,485 | (965) | 8,450 |
| 22 | Columbus, OH | 6,874 | (7,464) | 14,338 |
| 23 | Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 6,829 | 4,931 | 1,898 |
| 24 | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 6,523 | (15,936) | 22,459 |
| 25 | Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 6,334 | (250) | 6,584 |
| 26 | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 5,471 | (1,207) | 6,678 |
| 27 | Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 4,749 | 1,699 | 3,050 |
| 28 | Boise City, ID | 4,152 | 287 | 3,865 |
| 29 | Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 3,862 | (8,666) | 12,528 |
| 30 | Colorado Springs, CO | 3,545 | (1,725) | 5,270 |
| 31 | Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | 2,661 | (931) | 3,592 |
| 32 | Madison, WI | 2,228 | (1,052) | 3,280 |
| 33 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 2,018 | (17,003) | 19,021 |
| 34 | North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 1,624 | (3,079) | 4,703 |
| 35 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 1,551 | (4,002) | 5,553 |
| 36 | Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC | 1,221 | (3,229) | 4,450 |
| 37 | Tulsa, OK | 1,059 | (4,098) | 5,157 |
| 38 | Urban Honolulu, HI | 1,019 | 3,150 | (2,131) |
| 39 | Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | 649 | (8,343) | 8,992 |
| 40 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 296 | (12,473) | 12,769 |
| 41 | Bakersfield, CA | 292 | (5,778) | 6,070 |
| 42 | San Diego-Carlsbad, CA | (66) | (8,419) | 8,353 |
| 43 | New Orleans-Metairie, LA | (337) | (3,277) | 2,940 |
| 44 | Jacksonville, FL | (450) | (5,630) | 5,180 |
| 45 | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | (731) | (11,994) | 11,263 |
| 46 | Columbia, SC | (732) | (2,024) | 1,292 |
| 47 | Greensboro-High Point, NC | (1,510) | (5,851) | 4,341 |
| 48 | Kansas City, MO-KS | (1,617) | (7,509) | 5,892 |
| 49 | Chattanooga, TN-GA | (1,666) | (3,296) | 1,630 |
| 50 | Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | (1,995) | (4,604) | 2,609 |
| 51 | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | (2,342) | (36,318) | 33,976 |
| 52 | Knoxville, TN | (2,359) | (5,815) | 3,456 |
| 53 | Wichita, KS | (2,852) | (4,842) | 1,990 |
| 54 | Winston-Salem, NC | (3,267) | (6,200) | 2,933 |
| 55 | Richmond, VA | (3,356) | (5,882) | 2,526 |
| 56 | Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI | (3,641) | (7,659) | 4,018 |
| 57 | Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | (3,739) | (3,129) | (610) |
| 58 | Fresno, CA | (3,877) | (4,359) | 482 |
| 59 | Stockton-Lodi, CA | (3,979) | (4,706) | 727 |
| 60 | Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | (4,110) | (5,762) | 1,652 |
| 61 | Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | (4,171) | (5,992) | 1,821 |
| 62 | Baton Rouge, LA | (4,189) | (3,736) | (453) |
| 63 | Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | (4,427) | (8,527) | 4,100 |
| 64 | Jackson, MS | (4,819) | (1,234) | (3,585) |
| 65 | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | (5,387) | (7,091) | 1,704 |
| 66 | Birmingham-Hoover, AL | (5,632) | (6,833) | 1,201 |
| 67 | Springfield, MA | (5,699) | (8,207) | 2,508 |
| 68 | Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, PA | (6,010) | (10,822) | 4,812 |
| 69 | El Paso, TX | (6,692) | 3,133 | (9,825) |
| 70 | Tucson, AZ | (6,750) | (6,795) | 45 |
| 71 | Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | (7,572) | (11,190) | 3,618 |
| 72 | Dayton, OH | (8,234) | (7,199) | (1,035) |
| 73 | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | (8,448) | (20,173) | 11,725 |
| 74 | Toledo, OH | (8,554) | (7,520) | (1,034) |
| 75 | Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | (8,812) | (13,959) | 5,147 |
| 76 | Syracuse, NY | (9,160) | (10,605) | 1,445 |
| 77 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | (9,401) | (10,711) | 1,310 |
| 78 | Albuquerque, NM | (10,252) | (6,946) | (3,306) |
| 79 | New Haven-Milford, CT | (10,483) | (11,713) | 1,230 |
| 80 | Akron, OH | (10,503) | (11,008) | 505 |
| 81 | Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA | (10,871) | (9,624) | (1,247) |
| 82 | Worcester, MA-CT | (10,884) | (15,621) | 4,737 |
| 83 | Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | (11,062) | (18,280) | 7,218 |
| 84 | Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI | (12,983) | (10,822) | (2,161) |
| 85 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | (13,059) | (16,776) | 3,717 |
| 86 | Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA | (13,215) | (16,711) | 3,496 |
| 87 | Memphis, TN-MS-AR | (13,243) | (8,162) | (5,081) |
| 88 | Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | (13,476) | (9,186) | (4,290) |
| 89 | Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY | (14,728) | (16,008) | 1,280 |
| 90 | Rochester, NY | (15,939) | (16,371) | 432 |
| 91 | Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | (19,292) | (25,618) | 6,326 |
| 92 | Pittsburgh, PA | (24,558) | (27,601) | 3,043 |
| 93 | Cleveland-Elyria, OH | (32,392) | (25,503) | (6,889) |
| 94 | St. Louis, MO-IL | (34,145) | (24,937) | (9,208) |
| 95 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | (36,974) | (33,425) | (3,549) |
| 96 | Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | (53,732) | (60,477) | 6,745 |
| 97 | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | (74,879) | (50,967) | (23,912) |
| 98 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | (76,440) | (122,972) | 46,532 |
| 99 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | (119,584) | (76,264) | (43,320) |
| 100 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | (149,660) | (59,008) | (90,652) |
